It was a long time coming. In all fairness, President Donald Trump did warn us before today.
But we didn’t think he was actually going to do it. Not really.
But it did happen. And when it did, all people could think about was if Iran would start making Nuclear weapons again, violating the very purpose of forming the JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action.
The US President announced that he would, in time, work on another deal concerning Iran’s uranium enrichment policy, something which the JCPOA covered in all manners and forms. He said that Iran would come to the US for another deal.
But the withdrawal is wrong on so many levels.
For one, the USA finds itself isolated on many issues like the Paris Accords, the trilateral trade treaty between Mexico, USA, and Canada, and now the Iranian Nuclear Deal. The Nuclear deal was signed in 2015, when America’s allies joined it to limit the prospects of a Iranian Nuclear program. The US was obviously the most important player in the deal.
And now its withdrawal from the deal will expose it’s policies like a nerve to the rest of the world- on this issue, America’s allies have a different policy. This will prompt some irritation at best.
For another, it is possible that Iran may not want another deal with USA. In that scenario, USA would have to assess its options very carefully. Will it feel comfortable if this deal remains? Moreover, will it be comfortable with the idea that is not a part of a deal which directly restricts the capabilities of its rival? We already know the answer to that, but it prompts another question.
What are the options of the United States of America?
It has restricted itself to only a few options- those of a regime change (which would be disastrous), that of another deal (which is not likely) and that of reverting back to good old sanctions, which the EU and the rest of its allies may not even impose on their part.
None of these options are likely to benefit the US. Oil prices are bound to rise, which would make everyone very unhappy. It’s relationship with its allies may turn a bit bitter. Of course, there’s also the concern about the deal falling out if Iran decides to pull out of the agreement.
This route of not engaging in negotiations and dialogue may not pay off. There is no way that Iran will want another more restrictive deal. The USA is not happy with the current deal.
The most plausible (and better) situation for the deal is that JCPOA will continue without the USA.
The more worrying trend though, is that USA has not honoured its agreements. There is going to be instability if there is a change in government. But international dynamics are such that even a small upset could tip the balance into a haywire situation in which no one knows what’s going to happen next. This is naturally going to do more harm than good to the whole world.